Selected Publications

This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of tax changes in the European Union between 2000 and 2016. The novelty of our approach hinges on the use of real-time estimates of discretionary fiscal adjustments. In particular, exploiting a unique database covering anticipated and unanticipated tax changes, we provide the first narrative panel estimates of output and employment multipliers for tax changes. Our results suggest that medium-term revenue-based output multipliers are in the range of −1.1 to −1.9 for unanticipated tax changes. Preannounced changes, on the other hand, temporarily impact economic activity inversely upon announcement, resulting in a less than one-to-one change in ex post tax receipts, but portray up to one percentage point larger employment responses. Finally, we find evidence of asymmetry between the effects of revenue increasing and decreasing measures in the European Union.
In Economic Modelling

The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of shifts in macroeconomic forecasts on the regional budget. In particular, this paper uses a probabilistic model for the Flemish budget to determine the probability distribution of future public revenues and expenditures. Specifically, the range of required cyclical corrections has narrowed after the reform.

This paper reviews the principles underlying fiscal rules and applies them to the current European Union. In the European Union, the supranational Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) should provide the necessary guidance to limit governmental borrowing by member states. In addition to the SGP, European countries are implementing various other fiscal rules that bind central, regional and local governments. We provide empirical estimates of the effect of fiscal rules on fiscal variables in the Euro area.

Work in Progress

Dynamic Scoring

Development of macroeconometric model to account for output and employment effects of fiscal reforms

Fiscal Rule Infringement Risks

Stochastic characterisation of EMU budget discipline with policy uncertainty

The Conundrum of the Council

Whether to leave austerity decisions to an elected politician or an appointed fiscal council

Uncertainty and the Preferred Instrument for Fiscal Discipline

The optimal instrument for fiscal discipline under uncertainty and multitier government